I see what you mean, that something either happens, or it doesn't, but it doesn't make it fifty fifty. The chance that it happens is affected by the other alternatives.
If you roll a dice, it doesn't have a 50% chance of rolling on either number, because there are other alternatives. It isn't 'It either will land on the six, or it won't' It's 'It will either land on the six, or the five, or the four, or the three, or the two, or the one.' Making six outcomes. If you say there's a fifty fifty chance for each number, it makes it so that each one of the six sides has a fifty percent chance of being the outcome, then you will have 300%, making it 50/300, or one in six. It either does or it doesn't for six different alternatives, but there is no won't, because it only has six outcomes. If it doesn't roll on number one, it doesn't just have one other alternative, it has 5.
If you have a spinning wheel, like twister, and you use it like a dice, but you want it to spin on the six less than the one, and every number that's higher, you want to have a lower chance, so you make 30% of the wheel one. Then you make 25% of the wheel number two. then 20% number three. 15% number four. 7.5% number five, and 2.5 percent of it number six. When you spin it, it has 360 degrees to land on, and an amount of minuets. This is changed to 100%. 30% of the degrees is number one. So in every possible outcome, 30% of the possible outcomes will be one.
I can see your logic in saying it does or doesn't, but it isn't that, it's whether it lands on this, or this, or this, etc.
