-Intelligent gamers split from Activision and start focusing on different games
No, they will do what they always do; be very vocal about disliking the DRM, but still buying the game because they want to play it. This has been repeated time and time again.
-The "loyal" gamers that stay call blasphemy if Activision tries to get creative and change the CoD formula
This is a non-issue. Activision will never change the cod formula. It's the same thing most of the large publishers do now, given the global financial state. They will typically only fund games that have history, and are known to reap money. Professional game developer is not an area you want to be in if you want to be creative.
-The result is that Activision stops advancing as a company
Nope. Activision as a company will still bring in the profit and pay the shareholders, their ultimate aim - they are a business after all.
I'm just very jaded with most gamers "boycotts", I've almost never seen any of the gamers actually follow through. Typically they just use it as an excuse to justify pirating games, which they probably would do anyway.
Also, this dosen't mean I agree with DRM, or any of the other routes publishers are now taking, I'm just being realistic about what I expect of the majority of the gaming community.